Shooting Incidents in Dumaguete City, Philippines: Investigating Rational Choices in Target Selection

Abstract

Common perception suggests that violent crimes, especially those involving shooting incidents, are random - that is, shooting incidents may occur anywhere, anytime, and against anyone. On the contrary, this study argues that perpetrators of shooting incidents are rational and although rare, shooting incidents are, therefore, non-random across the victims, space, and time. Thus, this study investigates the patterns of shooting incidents across victims, places, and times in Dumaguete City, Negros Oriental, from January 2010 – July 2014. Data were retrieved from the database of the Dumaguete City Philippine National Police Station. Results reveal that shooting incidents tend to cluster in space, specifically at the central business district. Further, most of these events concentrate in an increasing pattern in May to October, at weekends, late in the evening and early dawn. The results support the argument that shooting incidents are non-random across space, time, and victims. In other words, offenders choose ‘who’ will be the victims, ‘where’, and ‘when’ to commit this violent crime.